The Chicago Bears (2-0) will battle the New York Giants (2-1) on Sunday, where Chicago will be looking to win their fourth straight against New York. This is a matchup between two very similar teams, so it’s considered a toss-up.
When it comes to determining who wins football games, there are a number of factors that contribute to a victory. Solid quarterback play, winning the line of scrimmage, protecting the football and taking it away, controlling important situations and overcoming or taking advantage of an injury situation.
In our weekly preview series, Alyssa Barbieri from Bears Wire and Dan Benton from Giants Wire went deep into the matchup to determine who has the advantage at the five key factors for winning football games in the NFL.
Bears Wire: There’s no denying it: Justin Fields has regressed in Year 2. That doesn’t mean things can’t be fixed – in fact that’s what Luke Getsy was brought in to do – but he’s not the better quarterback in this matchup between two underwhelming quarterbacks. Sure, Fields doesn’t have the benefit of top receiver talent or an offensive line consistent in pass protection. But there were opportunities for Fields to open up the NFL’s worst passing game in last week’s game against the Texans. Almost as if Fields is too worried about making mistakes and not ripping the football when he needs to. There’s definitely some trust and confidence issues that need to be cleaned up before things can get better.
Giants Wire: It’s a rare occurrence when we can say Daniel Jones is the better quarterback and feel comfortable about it, but here we are. It’s an argument we likely would have made even had Jones not played the best football of his career (statistics be damned) during Monday night’s loss to the Dallas Cowboys. There are obviously many question marks that surround him that factor into his play but Justin Fields finds himself dealing with a nearly identical scenario. Contrary to the narrative however, Jones is trending upward in Brian Daboll and Mike Kafka’s system.
Bears Wire: The offensive line has thrived when it comes to run blocking, leading the NFL’s second-best rushing attack averaging 186.7 yards on the ground per game. But their biggest struggles have been, shocker, in pass protection. It’s clear Fields doesn’t trust his offensive line, and they do need to do a better job of giving him a clean pocket. But the offensive line has improved with each week, and there have been times when Fields has had the time and space to throw. The defensive line will have their biggest test of the season when it comes to trying to stop Saquon Barkley, who’s among the league’s leading rushers. Chicago’s run defense has struggled, allowing 157 rushing yards per game. Barkley could be in for a big day. The Bears are a team that relies heavily on their front four getting home in pass rush, but they managed just one sack last week where Davis Mills had time to sit back in the pocket. Chicago is going to need to bring the pressure on Daniel Jones this week.
Giants Wire: Both the Giants and Bears are dealing with significant pass protection issues and it’s hard to say which has it worse (or better). Given how Big Blue’s O-line has handled the rush this season, there’s no way we can thump for them. On the plus side, their run blocking is significantly better and that’s helped Saquon Barkley, who currently leads the NFL in yards from scrimmage, tremendously. Defensively, assuming Leonard Williams is healthy and playing, the Giants also perform well in the trenches. They could use a boost to their organic pass rush (looking at Kayvon Thibodeaux and Azeez Ojulari), but they’re stout against the run – again, only if The Big Cat is in there. Without Williams, it’s very much a different story.
Bears Wire: Chicago’s defense has done a good job taking the football away (five times through three games), which should give them an advantage heading into this game. Unfortunately, the Bears offense (specifically Fields) has also coughed it up, which gives them only a +1 turnover differential through three weeks. Fields threw two interceptions on 17 pass attempts last week, and that’s something he can’t do if Chicago stands a chance in this game. The Giants haven’t turned the ball over much this season, which means the defense is going to need to force turnovers rather than simply take advantage.
Giants Wire: Surprisingly, the Giants don’t seem to have an issue with turnovers this year. They’ve given the ball away just three times and one of those came on a timing route during desperation time when a receiver (David Sills) slipped while breaking out of his route and fell down. The popular talking point remains that Daniel Jones is a turnover machine, but the numbers have decreased each year since his rookie season and are no longer a concern. He has the second-highest percentage of on-target throws in the NFL this season and isn’t fumbling the ball despite scrambling at a considerably higher clip. On the opposite side of the spectrum, their defense really isn’t forcing enough turnovers. Combined, they have a 0 differential through three weeks.
Bears Wire: The Bears need to be better on third down on offense and defense. The offense has converted 34.29% of their third downs, which ranks 23rd, and the defense allowed third down conversions on 42.11% (20th) through three games. Third down will be key in this game. The offense needs to sustain drives and the defense needs to get off the field on third down. Chicago has been impressive in the red zone both on offense and defense this season. The Bears offense has scored touchdowns on 71.43% of their trips (5th in NFL), while Chicago’s defense has allowed teams to score in the red zone just 50% of the time (9th in NFL).
Giants Wire: The argument could be made that defensive coordinator Wink Martindale is a situational football mastermind. There have been several times throughout the preseason and the first three weeks of the regular season where you watch tape and think, “that is absolutely brilliant.” He always seems to be playing chess while others are playing checkers. For Mike Kafka & Co., it’s a bit more hit or miss. Is that his fault or the players’ fault? That’s a good debate to have but they’re not nearly as reliable offensively as they are defensively. Still, you look back at some of the aggressiveness over the first three games and the creative play-calling and it breeds hope.
Bears Wire: Chicago was pretty healthy through the first couple of games, but that’s changed very quickly. The Bears will once again be without top cornerback Jaylon Johnson (quad), which means Kindle Vildor will get another opportunity with extended reps. Running back David Montgomery (ankle) will miss Sunday’s game after being injured in the first quarter of last week’s game. Luckily, Chicago has another starting-caliber back in Khalil Herbert to take his place. Linebacker Roquan Smith (quad), coming off a monster game, was limited in practice this week, and he’ll be good to go against the Giants. Rookie receiver Velus Jones Jr. (hamstring) is poised to make his NFL debut this Sunday.
Giants Wire: The Giants should get cornerback Aaron Robinson (appendicitis) back this week and there’s also a decent chance Leonard Williams plays. That is a significant boost for the defense. The other side of the ball is where problems are mounting. Sterling Shepard has been lost for the season with a torn ACL, costing the Giants their best all-around wide receiver. Rookie Wan’Dale Robinson and Kadarius Toney are also expected to miss this game, which leaves Big Blue exceptionally thin at the position.
This is a matchup between two very similar teams who probably have no business potentially being 3-1. Both have dominant run games and underwhelming passing attacks. Both are allowing less than 20 points per game. Both have first-year head coaches. This is as close to a toss-up as you can get. Ultimately, this game is going to come down to which team makes the fewest mistakes. While the Bears have won three of the last four meetings, the home team has won each of the last five meetings. Can Chicago break the trend?
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